Predictive microbiology

Predictive microbiology is an important area of food microbiology. At the National food Institute, Technical University of Denmark, we work within the area by predicting growth and inactivation of human pathogenic microorganisms in food chains. We also predict and model the effects of food properties and conditions during production, storage and distribution.

At the Institute, we also use mathematical models and software to facilitate the application of our research in risk analysis as well as for teaching, public sector consultancy and innovation.

Predictive microbiology models are essential for risk assessments when concentrations of human pathogens in food cannot be measured and must be predicted, e.g. at the time of consumption after distribution of food to consumers.

Our predictive models for Listeria monocytogenes have recently been used extensively to evaluate and document control of this serious human pathogenic bacterium in various ready-to-eat meat and seafood products.  


National and international collaboration is stimulated through participation in the LMC Food Microbiology Network, the International Committee of Predictive Modelling in Food and the Microbial Modelling and Risk Analysis Professional Development Group within the International Association of Food Protection.

National collaborators include: Royal Greenland Seafood; Viffos; Danish Meat Research Institute; DTU Informatics, University of Copenhagen, Faculty of Life Sciences; Arla Foods and e-Smiley.

International collaborators include: University of Tasmania, Australia;  Rutgers University, USA; Ifremer, France; PURAC, The Netherlands and the Spanish meat research institute (IRTA).


Paw Dalgaard
National Food Institute
+45 45 27 52 20
7 MARCH 2021